How to Master NFL Betting Splits

What are NFL Betting Splits?

The NFL betting splits are used to determine the amount of bets and money placed on each side of a match. The bet percentage indicates how many bets have been made for each team, while the money percentage shows what portion of total money has been wagered on either side.

When there is a significant gap between bet percentage and money percentage, it could indicate sharp action because this implies that larger bets are being placed on one particular team over another.

Types of NFL Betting Splits

There are two main types of NFL betting splits:

Bet Percentage: This shows the proportion of total bets placed on every side of a contest. Suppose 61% of bets are for Raiders and 39% are for Chiefs, then the bet percentage will be 61% Raiders and 39% Chiefs.

Money Percentage: This explains the percentage of total money betted on each side. Assuming in the same case, if 52% of money is on Raiders and 48% goes to Chiefs, then the money percentage will be 52% for Raiders and 48% for Chiefs.

Identifying Public Betting Tendencies

NFL betting tendencies from the public can be observed in a liking for favorites over underdogs, overs more than unders, and affection towards popular teams and players. Typically, the public shows a preference for betting on favorites because they are seen as having better odds to win.

This tendency might result in these teams being overvalued. Likewise, the public generally leans towards selecting overs when it comes to point totals.

Fading the Public

Betting against the public is a strategy called contrarian betting. It works on the assumption that most of the time, people who place bets are biased towards favorites and overestimate certain teams. So, by making bets that go against what others think or do, contrarians hope to discover value in lines which have been pumped up because of popular perception.

When a game has 75% of bets placed on one side, it frequently shows that the public is giving excessive importance to this specific team. Choosing the opposite side even if it’s considered as an underdog might offer contrarian worthiness. Favorites, home teams and overs are usual kinds of public biases which contrarians could take advantage of.

Limitations of Bet Percentage

Although bet percentage gives a view of public betting, there are some restrictions to keep in mind when studying NFL betting splits. One limit is that the bet percentage can be affected by small sample sizes, especially at the beginning of week or for less popular games. With limited data, just a few big bets might greatly affect percentages and make them less trustworthy.

Moreover, bet percentage is not proportionate to the size of each bet. Many times, a big amount of small bets can be heavier than a few large ones. This situation creates a gap between the percentage of bets and actual money at risk. Lastly, recreational bettors could impact the bet percentage by placing their wagers on well-known teams or favorites instead of sharp money that looks for value.

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Tracking Sharp Action

When you study the NFL betting splits, it’s important to grasp the difference between big bets and small bets. The money percentage can be influenced a lot by large bets, even if they are less in quantity. Generally speaking, sharp bettors or professionals place bigger wagers than casual ones. This disparity in bet percentage versus money percentage might indicate possible sharp action. For example, when a team shows high bet percentage but lower money percentage, it possibly means that big bets of important people are supporting the other team.

Factors Influencing NFL Betting Splits

There are several key factors that influence NFL betting splits:

– The recent performance of a team, particularly in the last 3 to 5 games, can cause a noticeable change in NFL betting splits because people who make bets often give too much importance to these recent outcomes.

– Factors like the team’s record at home compared to away, as well as how they perform against the spread, are frequently observed.

– Injuries to key players, especially quarterbacks, can skew betting splits heavily.

– How tough the schedule of a team is, plays a big role in moving lines and splitting bets.

– Teams that have a difficult series of games, particularly with long distances to cover, are frequently bet against.

– Games played outside in the cold, snow or rain can make passing games more difficult and often result in a greater amount of rushing.

– Bettors will often take the under in bad weather games.

– Teams who are more familiar with the conditions might receive more bets, particularly if they’re playing as underdogs at home.

– Bettors tend to overvalue favorites, home teams, and overs, leading to inflated lines.

– Betting on underdogs and unders might bring value in a fading public strategy, but it needs a lot of patience.

Identifying Potential Value Bets

Recognizing value bets includes studying NFL betting splits to discover differences between how the public views a team’s chances of winning or covering the spread and what is actually probable. Line movements, when contrasted with NFL betting splits and opening lines, can aid in identifying instances where a team is either overvalued or undervalued by the public. 

If a team’s bet percentage rises notably following an opening line but the line does not move accordingly, this could suggest that there exists value on the opposing side.

Betting Splits and Prop Bets

NFL betting splits can influence player props and team props. The public’s betting habits might alter odds and lines set by sportsbooks. For instance, if a big part of bets are on one side of a player’s prop, it could imply that the public is overrating this particular player’s performance.

Examining betting splits to locate disparities in prop bets is a good method for finding value. This is because the market sometimes misprices these types of wagers due to incorrect public sentiment. Handicapping the betting market can be an efficient approach, particularly if you manage to identify chances that are skewed by public opinion.

NFL betting splits show us the feelings of people who bet and can help those placing bets to find chances for value. They give information about how much money and what percentage of bets are on each side in a matchup. This helps bettors understand public trends and possible sharp action.